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Oxford (pte012/10.03.2005/11:00) - The number of cases of the deadliest form of malaria in the world could be twice as high as previously predicted, researchers say. According to a team from the University of Oxford http://www.ox.ac.uk , there were over half a billion cases of Plasmodium falciparum malaria globally in 2002. This figure is up to 50 per cent higher than previous estimates from the World Health Organisation. As the BBC http://www.bbc.co.uk reports, two thirds of cases occurred in Africa, mostly affecting under-fives. The new figures are 200 per cent higher for areas outside Africa. According to the study, up to 2.2 billion people could be at risk from malaria. The researchers say this could be because the WHO's relying on all centres noting all cases of the disease in countries was less certain a method as the one they used.
The Oxford scientists, based at the Kenyan Medical Research Institute/Wellcome Trust Laboratories used contemporary and historical epidemiological, geographical and demographic information to model where people live, the likelihood of infection from malaria parasites and susceptibility to developing the disease. The researchers also used Geographic Information Systems and data from earth orbiting satellites. "We have taken a conservative approach to estimating how many attacks occur globally each year but even so the problem is far bigger than we previously thought," said Bob Snow, who led the research. "We have taken a science-driven approach to working out who is at risk, where they are located and what their chances would be of developing an attack of malaria," he continued. "Our work has demonstrated that nearly 25 per cent of worldwide cases occur in South East Asia and the Western Pacific - whereas most people regard Plasmodium falciparum disease a problem particular to Africa," he added.
"If we are going to roll back malaria, then we need to know the size of the problem and where it is," said Nick White, director of the Wellcome Trust's South East Asia unit. "Falciparum malaria has increasingly been thought of as an African problem. These estimates challenge that notion and suggest there is a lot more falciparum malaria in SE Asia than previously thought," he added.
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